Met Office Reveals Christmas Snow Chances

Its latest long-range forecast is now up to Boxing Day (December 26), and it gives a glimpse of conditions for the week before and after Christmas Day.

Every year, some people hope for a white Christmas, while others want a snow-free day around December 25, as it could disrupt their travel plans.

The big day is now less than a month away, and a clearer picture will emerge of what the weather might be like on Christmas Day, which falls on Thursday this year.

Will it snow this Christmas?

However, those hoping for a white Christmas may be disappointed by the Met Office's early indications, which show wet and windy weather, but no snow. In their long-range forecast for Friday, December 12th, to Friday, December 26th, weather forecasters said: "Widespread unsettled conditions are expected during this period. Wet and windy weather is expected to persist, with more rain in the northwest of the country.

There may be some drier, more stable periods, especially in the southeast. Overall, temperatures are expected to be above average."

The Met Office says it can accurately predict snowfall up to five days in advance, so we'll have to wait until December 20th to know if there will be a White Christmas in 2025.

What is a White Christmas?

A White Christmas occurs when an official Met Office observer or one of the Met Office's 300 or more automated weather stations sees a single snowflake fall during the 24 hours before December 25th.

So, instead of a blanket of snow on the road, just one snowflake is enough for a White Christmas.

When was the last significant snowfall on Christmas Day?

The last White Christmas occurred in 2023, when 11% of Met Office stations reported snow on the ground.

The last significant snowfall on Christmas Day in the UK was in 2010, when 83% of stations reported snowfall. Snow on the ground was reported – the highest percentage ever.

Last year, 2009, also saw significant snowfall, with 57% of stations reporting snow on the ground.

Is the likelihood of a White Christmas increasing or decreasing?

In most areas of the UK, Christmas falls at the beginning of the season when snowfall is most likely.

Met Office data from 1991 to 2020 shows that snow remains on the ground for an average of 3.0 days in December, 3.3 days in January, and 3.4 days in February.

White Christmases were more common in the 18th and 19th centuries, especially before 1752, when Britain adopted the Gregorian calendar, which actually brought Christmas 12 days earlier.

Since 1960, at least one has been celebrated every two Christmases. The Met Office station network records snowfall, which means that, technically, white Christmases are still quite common.

However, since 1960, snow has only fallen on the ground on Christmas Day four times – in 1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010.

Has climate change affected the likelihood of a white Christmas?

The Met Office stated that climate change has "generally reduced" the likelihood of a white Christmas, although it also noted that climate change trends should not be judged by a single date in the year, as they depend on daily variations in weather.

A spokesperson told Yahoo News UK: "Climate change has already impacted our UK winter temperatures. Six of the ten warmest winters on record have occurred since 2007, a trend that has been ongoing since 1884.

"However, natural changes will continue to play a role. 2010 was very cold and snowy, but on average, UK winters are getting warmer, and the amount and severity of snowfall in the UK has decreased since the 1960s." "Although it is difficult to detect climate change trends on any particular day of the calendar year, climate change generally reduces the likelihood of a white Christmas in the UK."