Bitcoin Headed for $80K Before Moonshot $250K Rally

Hayes said new all-time highs will only come after markets “puke” enough to force policymakers into renewed money printing.

CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri sees signs of a broader bear market.

Bitcoin could slide toward $80,000 in the coming weeks before rebounding into a powerful year-end surge that may carry it as high as $200,000 to $250,000, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

Hayes said Bitcoin is reacting to a sharp deterioration in U.S. dollar liquidity, an adjustment he believes must play out in full before the next leg of the bull cycle can begin.

Hayes believes Bitcoin may be approaching a major rebound later this year, even as he warns that the cryptocurrency could first fall toward the $80,000 region.

In his most recent essay published Monday, Hayes noted that Bitcoin’s retreat from roughly $125,000 to the low $90,000s aligns with a market grappling with tighter financial conditions, despite U.S. equities trading near record highs.

This divergence, he said, suggests a credit event may be forming.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to respond to contracting liquidity earlier than other risk assets.

Hayes argued that Bitcoin could “absolutely” drop to $80,000 or $85,000 if equities decline 10–20% and Treasury yields climb toward 5%.

Hayes described Bitcoin as a “free-market weathervane” for future fiat liquidity, suggesting it reacts ahead of political decision-making rather than in response to it.

While the Trump administration continues advocating for looser financial conditions, he said markets are currently following hard liquidity data, not political assurances.

Despite near-term downside risks, Hayes said a sufficiently deep correction would likely pressure U.S. policymakers to accelerate liquidity injections through the Federal Reserve or other mechanisms.

He argued that such a shift could spark a rapid reversal in Bitcoin and drive it toward $200,000 or $250,000 before year-end.Hayes said he remains skeptical of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, arguing that new all-time highs will only arrive once markets have sold off enough to push U.S. policymakers into faster liquidity expansion.