XRP ETF hype vs. shutdown risk: How much could the price rise

the DTCC platform. Of these, Canary's filing is attracting the most attention, as its November 13th window is the most prominent. This article examines how much XRP's price could rise if these spot ETFs are approved.

Or how the environment could change if the US government shutdown ends early and the SEC issues new comments, delaying the initial launch.

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Whales and holders reduce risk ahead of decision

Whale companies holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP have begun adjusting their positions as the ETF window approaches.

On November 9th, this group held 8.38 billion XRP, worth approximately $20.8 billion at current prices. By November 10th, their holdings had dropped to 8.37 billion XRP, a drop of approximately 10 million XRP, or $25 million in value.

This change may seem small, but it reflects waning confidence among top holders. Their behavior often influences broader sentiment—and this decline reflects some hesitation despite discussions of potential ETF auto-approval.

The holder net position change metric, which tracks the holdings of long-term investors, further reinforces this caution. Between November 2nd and 3rd, holders sold approximately 102.5 million XRP. By November 10th, this figure had risen to 135.8 million XRP, representing a 32% increase in daily withdrawals. This means that holders are consistently profiting during the market rally, preventing the market from consolidating.

So, why are whale investors hesitant? The answer depends on timing. If the shutdown continues, Canary's filing could automatically take effect without SEC review—but if the government reopens soon, SEC staff could issue new comments that could delay approval.

This regulatory uncertainty is likely making even confident traders defensive.

However, Canary isn't the only issuer removing the delaying amendment. Franklin Templeton also filed an updated S-1 on November 4th, removing the same clause that lets the SEC control scheduling. Initially, the approval date for Franklin's XRP ETF was November 14th.

That filing activated an automatic 20-day effectiveness period, meaning that if the Commission doesn't intervene, Franklin's spot XRP ETF could also receive approval around November 24th.

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The Rex Osprey Precedent and Leverage Trend

The last significant moment for XRP ETFs—the launch of Rex Osprey's XRPR on September 18th—established a clear pattern. Prices surged by approximately 18% before the event, then sharply corrected as traders enthusiastically sold after the event went live.