England’s Big Chance in Perth at the Ashes

England had already warned that an announcement regarding Mark Wood was imminent—which isn't usually a sign of optimism.

Bad news was bound to come, but not from England in the Ashes series. Just 86 minutes into the game, Australia's Josh Hazlewood was ruled out of Friday's first Test, following concerns about a hamstring injury. Hazlewood had a hamstring injury, Wood had a hamstring injury.

The shockwave spread beyond the white fences of Lilac Hill, making the on-field action of England's practice match against the England Lions pale in comparison to the action of hamstring scanners in various parts of Australia.

Hazelwood is out of action, along with captain Pat Cummins, while two-thirds of Australia's top three fast bowlers were absent from the series opener at Optus Stadium.

Before we hand the urn to Ben Stokes, remember that Hazlewood missed four Tests in the last Ashes played in this country in 2021-22. Cummins also missed one match. Australia won 4-0.

In home Tests played without both Cummins and Hazlewood, Australia hasn't lost in 13 years.

Still, this isn't the Australia of four years ago. With age and questions surrounding their team composition, the hosts will find it difficult to adapt to the absence of two experienced fast bowlers. Australia could field one of approximately six different XIs, but none of them seems completely satisfactory.

This is a golden opportunity that England simply cannot afford to miss.

This doesn't mean Australia is suddenly poised for victory. The hosts remain favorites because they have some of the best cricketers and don't often lose at home.

And it's no exaggeration to say that this is England's best chance in Australia in 14 years, as 13 losses and two draws in 15 Tests since 2010-11 haven't been a major obstacle to success.

To regain the Ashes, England have no choice but to start well. Reversing momentum in Australia is difficult, making a comeback like the one in 2023 even more challenging. The second Test is a day-night affair, and the Australian team, led by pink-ball prodigy Mitchell Starc, rarely loses under floodlights.

Given their weak position, imagine the boost Australia would get from winning the first Test, especially with captain Cummins poised to make a comeback in the second. Consider how bad it would be for England if they lose.

Ten names look inked onto the England first-Test teamsheet. The decision will be over Wood, whom England were desperate – and may still be – to unleash on a spicy Optus Stadium surface.

It may seem ludicrous to risk a fast bowler with the injury history of a crash-test dummy when his first attempt at cricket in whites for 15 months resulted in a trip to hospital.

There would be logic in taking that risk. England look set on a five-man pace attack for the first Test, so there would be protection for Wood from four other seamers. It is arguably a greater risk to field him later in the series, when the need for a front-line spinner would remove a pace option.

The debate around England's method of preparation, a gentle three-dayer against the Lions, will only be settled by the outcome of the Ashes series.

Much of the conversation centred on the quantity of warm-up matches, rather than the quality. In the circumstances, England felt a controlled environment against the Lions was the best they could do. They are probably right, given the best Australian domestic cricketers are busy in the Sheffield Shield.

The problem is Lilac Hill is so different from Optus Stadium it might as well be on a different planet.

At the Optus, a spicy pitch will be surrounded by 60,000 baying Australians. At Lilac Hill, a dead surface was observed by a smattering of polite onlookers, most of them ex-pats. The only abuse was a rude word shouted by the driver of a passing ute.

If this is the best quality England can get, increasing the quantity would have been pointless.

Lessons were still learned. Spinners Shoaib Bashir and Will Jacks are off the pace in their return from a broken finger apiece.

In Bashir's case, woefully so. His 24 overs - more than any other bowler in the match - went for an eye-watering 151 runs. Jacks improved as the game progressed and bowled Joe Root with a beauty on the final afternoon. He could even be ahead of Bashir in the pecking order and would be an option at number eight.

England may play five seamers in each of the first two Tests but will need a spinner eventually, so Bashir and Jacks should be sent for overs in the Lions games taking place over the following two weekends.

The player to benefit most was Ollie Pope, who might have felt vulnerable after he was replaced as vice-captain. Pope was endorsed before the tour match by captain Stokes and assistant coach Marcus Trescothick, and responded with scores of 100 and 90. He looked calm and classy, recognising the opportunity for valuable practice.

Jacob Bethell failed to challenge Pope, scoring 70 runs in the second innings. Bethell had opportunities in the limited-overs series in New Zealand, but he failed to capitalize on them.

Now, the Warwickshire player's participation in the Ashes would indicate that something was amiss: results, form, or injury.

Harry Brook, who replaced Pope as vice-captain, didn't bat like a batsman with a newfound sense of responsibility. Some players don't develop themselves through weak cricket, and Brook showed little respect for this practice. No one will remember whether he scored runs in the first Test, but he certainly created unnecessary pressure.

Stokes is another player who doesn't play often due to a lack of enthusiasm for warm-ups.

After four months out with a shoulder injury, it was necessary to do so this week. The captain looked completely focused. Fully fit, he bowled 16 overs and found his batting rhythm, scoring 84 runs in the first innings.

If Stokes is England's talisman, then Jofra Archer is their trump card. The fast bowler was also put to his task at Lilac Hill, trying to get the ball to bounce off the lifeless surface.

The day before the match, as most of the England team headed to the golf course, Archer was asked if he would play a few holes. He made a face like a child being fed broccoli. His answer was, "No, pool."

The next evening, he took off his shirt outside the dressing room and revealed a muscular torso. The break between the first three Test matches is good for fast bowlers. This could be the time for the Jofra Archer that English fans have been eagerly awaiting.

Besides the Ashes team, some Lions batsmen also attracted attention. Ben McKinney and Jordan Cox both scored half-centuries in their innings. They're next in line. Thomas Reeve scored a half-century at the age of 17.

These are names for the future.

England still has a chance: Perth, Optus, and the Ashes.