US media outlets predict Republicans have won a closely contested congressional election in Tennessee. This race was considered a test of whether Democrats would be able to make a comeback at the national level next year.
Now that all county results are in, Republican Matt Van Eps is on track to defeat Democrat Aftin Behn by about nine percentage points.
This will ensure Republicans retain their slim majority in the House of Representatives. But their margin of victory will be less than half of what it was last time, almost a year ago, causing concern among some in the party.
Republican Senator Ted Cruz reacted to the results, saying, "This was alarming."
This special election attracted national attention—and significant spending from both sides ahead of next year's midterm elections.
Despite being in a reliably Republican area, the vote in the 7th Congressional District was also seen by some pundits as a test of President Donald Trump's popularity during his second term.
Failure to win the seat could have been considered a major blow to Trump's Republicans and a sign that his electoral appeal may be waning.
In the end, Republicans retained the seat—but the projected margin appears to be significantly smaller than the 22-point margin they would have enjoyed in November 2024, the day Trump returned to the White House.
The district up for grabs stretches from the Alabama border into Kentucky and includes parts of the city of Nashville. No Democrat has been elected there in more than 40 years.
The seat became vacant in July after Republican Congressman Mark Green resigned to work in the private sector.
Both parties spent millions of dollars trying to promote their candidates.
Senior party officials also visited the state for rallies, including former Democratic Vice Presidents Kamala Harris and Al Gore, and Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson.
Van Epps had worked closely with Trump, who held a virtual rally to support his campaign. After his victory, Van Epps said the result "showed that running from Trump is the way to lose; running with Trump is the way to win."
He added, "Leaders who run from the President or abandon the common-sense policies for which the American people gave us a resounding mandate do so at their own peril."
Trump congratulated Van Epps on social media Tuesday night, writing that "Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including millions of dollars."
House Speaker Mike Johnson congratulated his Republican colleague, writing on X: "I look forward to working together to continue our pursuit of lower costs, a secure border, and our America First agenda."
Democratic candidate Benn posted his own on X, saying the race "proved to the country that states like Tennessee are still worth fighting for."
He added: "The margin was very narrow, and the credit for that can only be given to the thousands of volunteers who showed up. This is just the beginning."
Benn lost in every county except Davidson County, which includes the city of Nashville.
But at a campaign event on Tuesday night, Benn said that despite his defeat, he believes the result is "the beginning of something tremendous," adding that "no one in Washington believed we could even get this close."
Ian Russell, a Democratic operative advising Benn's campaign, told the BBC that Trump "had to spend millions of dollars to save this seat."
He said, "Republicans tried their best to keep this seat. This is a very, very bad sign for them in the midterms."
Some Republicans agreed. Speaking to Politico on condition of anonymity, a House aide said the result was "very close." Another House member told the same website: "If we play as a team and Trump administration officials play smart, Republicans can survive. Neither is a sure thing."
In an interview Tuesday evening, Republican Senator Cruz said the party "could have lost this district because many of the people who showed up were motivated by how much they dislike President Trump."
He said the results showed that the 2026 midterm elections would be about which party's supporters are more motivated to vote.
"In a year, it will be a turnout election, and the left will come out ahead," he said. "Hate is a powerful motivator."
Tennessee remains firmly Trump territory. He won the state with 64% of the vote last year and has garnered over 60% in the past two presidential elections.
Van Epps is a military veteran who served nine tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. He ran in a crowded primary where loyalty to Trump was a litmus test – and the president's last-minute endorsement vaulted him to the top.
Meanwhile, Benn has focused his campaign almost entirely on affordability and local quality-of-life issues.