Supreme Court could overturn a key policy of Donald Trump

There is speculation that the United States Supreme Court may rule against the Trump administration on tariffs.

However, legal analysts are divided on what the court will decide.

Former federal prosecutor Nima Rahmani told Newsweek that she believes the court will take a deferential stance toward President Donald Trump in this case, while Paul Collins, a professor of legal studies and political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told Newsweek that he believes the court will rule against Trump.

Why This Matters

Justices on the nation's highest court heard arguments last week on Trump's tariffs. Their decision will have a significant impact on tariffs, a key policy of the president's second term. Critics argue that companies will impose tariffs on consumers, increasing costs for Americans. However, Trump argues that this will have long-term benefits for the country, including bringing jobs back from overseas.

Trump v. V.O.S. This selection is a crucial test of the scope of executive power, as justices are considering whether he can use emergency powers to impose tariffs without congressional approval. The case centers on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law that allows the president to exercise regulatory authority over trade during a national emergency.

What to Know

Since taking office in January, Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries. His administration has argued that these tariffs are necessary to reduce the trade deficit and stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. However, lower courts have rejected these arguments, and in August, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled against Trump.

The Supreme Court has a 6-3 majority and has ruled in Trump's favor in some cases, but last week some justices appeared more skeptical of Trump's tariff arguments.

Major speculative markets suggest that traders believe the Supreme Court is unlikely to side with Trump on the tariff issue. According to Kalshi's estimate, the probability of winning the case on Thursday was only 26 percent, compared to around 46 percent before the arguments last week.

Polymarket also gave Trump a 26 percent chance of winning the case. On November 5, it gave the Supreme Court a 38 percent chance of siding with Trump. This means that the probability of victory decreased in both markets after the oral arguments.

Rahmani said, "They have generally been respectful to him. Historically, when it comes to matters of foreign policy and national security, they have always sided with the executive. It has been completely within the executive's jurisdiction." He said that the administration was able to decide on the tariffs on national security grounds, but the judges doubted that their authority over the tariffs would be absolute.

Collins told Newsweek that the oral arguments indicated that the court was likely to find that the tariffs were "beyond the president's power."

The oral arguments were difficult for the Trump administration. "The justices' questions suggested several ways to resolve the case, most of which appear likely for Trump to lose," Collins said. "For example, Chief Justice Roberts indicated that tariffs are a tax on the American people, which is within Congress's authority. There was also the question of whether the tariffs were even permissible under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act."