UK net migration revised lower in 2024

Net migration, the difference between those entering and leaving the country, has been reduced by 86,000 and is now projected to be 345,000 in 2024.

The main reason for this change is that more British citizens are expected to emigrate in 2024 than initially estimated, and 100,000 fewer people now living in the UK are expected to emigrate.

According to the data, migration was much higher than previously estimated, increasing the UK population by 944,000 between April 2022 and March 2023. Previous projections had projected this figure to be 906,000 by June 2023.

The new figures make little change to the estimate of total migration to the UK between 2021 and 2024, which has fallen slightly to 2.5 million from 2.6 million in the revised report.

This comes after the government announced new proposals aimed at reforming the asylum system, including periodic reviews of asylum status and limits on migrants' rights to access benefits.

The ONS is revamping the system used to generate official estimates of migration from 2020. Before the pandemic, statisticians asked some travelers at airports and ports about their travel plans and used those answers to estimate how many people were planning to stay.

But according to Dr. Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory think tank, the results obtained from this method were "incredibly low" for British citizens.

ONS officials said the new figures are based on how often people appear in tax and benefit records, providing a more accurate and proactive reflection of migrant activities in Britain.

Based on that methodology, the ONS now assumes that 257,000 British citizens will leave the UK in 2024, while 143,000 British citizens living abroad will return. This means that net migration of Britons – the difference between departures and arrivals – is 114,000, while the initial estimate was 17,000.

Dr. Sumption cautions that these figures are "still not final" because they do not measure when a person enters or leaves the country. This can cause problems if someone lives in the country but disappears from tax and welfare statistics because they live on savings.

Using this method, such a person is usually considered a migrant, leading to inaccurate migration statistics. The ONS has stopped using this method to measure EU migration and now uses visa and border data shared by the Home Office.

Data obtained under the old system estimated that the number of EU citizens in the UK would fall by 96,000 by the end of 2024, but the new system has reduced this estimate to 69,000.

Why is migration increasing?
Critics have largely attributed this recent increase to changes made by Boris Johnson's government since 2021.

Three main factors have been identified: an increase in work visas—particularly in health and social care—an increase in student visas, and the opening of humanitarian routes for people from Ukraine, Hong Kong, and Afghanistan.

Small boat traffic has also increased during this period. 39,075 people have crossed the Channel so far this year.

Both Conservative and Labour governments have tried to tackle the rising migration figures. Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced restrictions on the rights of students and care workers to bring their families to the UK.

On Monday, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced sweeping changes to the asylum system, which she described as "out of control and unfair."

Speaking in the House of Commons, Mahmood said: "If we fail to deal with this crisis, we will draw more people down a path that starts with anger and ends in hatred."