China’s November Exports to U.S. Plunge 29% Despite Trade Truce

China’s exports to the U.S. fell 28.6% in November, marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines, despite a recent trade deal.

sarah

Dec 8, 2025 - 11:09

China’s November Exports to U.S. Plunge 29% Despite Trade Truce

Despite the recent trade deal between the two economies, Chinese goods to the U.S. fell for the eighth consecutive month, while overall exports exceeded market expectations in November as manufacturers increased shipments to other markets.

Chinese customs data on Monday showed that outbound shipments in U.S. dollars rose 5.9% last month from a year earlier, exceeding economists' forecasts of 3.8% growth in a Reuters poll. This growth marks a recovery from a sudden 1.1% drop in October—the first decline since March 2024.

Imports rose 1.9% last month, below expectations of a 3% increase, as a prolonged housing slowdown and growing job insecurity continued to weigh on domestic consumption. Growth was higher than the 1% increase in October.

Chinese officials have renewed promises to increase imports and work toward balancing trade amid widespread criticism of their aggressive exports.

Despite tariff cuts, exports to the U.S. fell 28.6% in November, marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines in shipments to the world's largest consumer market. Imports from the U.S. fell 19% compared to a year earlier.

So far this year, China's exports to the U.S. have declined 18.9% year-on-year, while imports have fallen 13.2%.

The declining exports in November were offset by increased shipments to non-U.S. markets, particularly to China's two largest trading blocs, the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. China's exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by more than 8% and nearly 15%, respectively. In the first 11 months of this year, China's total exports rose 5.4% compared to the same period in 2024, while imports fell 0.6%, leading to a trade surplus of $1.076 trillion by November, a 21.6% increase from the previous year.

A Slow Start to the Trade Deal

Chinese manufacturers breathed a sigh of relief when President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, reached a deal during their meeting in South Korea in late October, suspending several restrictive measures for a year.

Both sides agreed to roll back heavy tariffs on each other's goods and lift export controls for essential minerals and advanced technology, with Beijing promising to buy more US soybeans and work with Washington to curb the flow of fentanyl.

China's rare earths exports rose sharply in November, sending 5,494 tons of the essential minerals, up 24% from a year earlier and up from 4,343.5 tons in October. The Commerce Ministry is reportedly designing a new rare earths licensing system to speed up shipments.

The country's total soybean imports rose 13% to 8.1 million metric tons in November from a year earlier, though this remained below October levels, indicating a slow start to fulfilling its promise to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year.

Following the agreement with the U.S., levies on Chinese goods remain at around 47.5%, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Beijing's tariff on U.S. imports is around 32%. Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said that improving export growth will help mitigate the damage caused by weak domestic demand, putting the economy on track to achieve this year's growth target of "around 5%."

An official manufacturing survey showed that China's factory activity declined for the eighth consecutive month in November, and new orders remained low. A private survey focusing on exporters also showed a sudden slowdown in manufacturing activity.

Upcoming Policy Meeting

Chinese policymakers are expected to meet later this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference, where they will discuss economic growth targets, the budget, and policy priorities for next year. Specific targets will not be officially announced until the "Two Sessions" meeting in March next year.

According to Goldman Sachs, Beijing is expected to keep its 2026 growth target unchanged at “around 5%,” which would require some policy easing early next year to ensure growth picks up from a potentially sluggish reading in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Wall Street bank expects Chinese authorities to raise the fiscal deficit limit to 1 percentage point of GDP, cut the policy rate by a total of 20 basis points, and increase stimulus measures to stem the housing slowdown.

The strengthening of the yuan in recent weeks has not impacted China's exports. According to LSEG data, the offshore yuan strengthened by nearly 5% since April, reaching 7.0669 per dollar at market opening on Monday.

Weijian Shan, chief executive of private equity firm PAG, said in an opinion piece last month that despite projecting consistent 5% annual GDP growth from 2023, China "urgently needs to reduce its reliance on exports and shift toward domestic consumption to ensure sustainable expansion."

Shan further said that a stronger yuan could increase consumption's contribution to economic growth from the current 53% to 86% by 2023, as it would lower import costs and increase household purchasing power.