Green Surge: A Defining Moment in National Politics
Green surge in Gorton and Denton signals a major UK political shift, raising by-election fears for Labour and Conservatives amid rising insurgent parties.
The Gorton and Denton by-election has many implications, but it's best to focus first on the winner: the Greens.
The closest they've ever come to winning a Westminster by-election was in a seat in Somerset in 2023, where they received around 10% of the vote and finished third.
Defeating one of Labour's largest majorities shows that, under the more left-populist leadership of Zac Polansky, the Greens are now playing in a different political league.
Polansky and the party's new MP, Hannah Spencer, have made it clear that they see this not as a self-contained local contest but as a blueprint for all sorts of other parts of the country.
Many Labour MPs fear they are right.
Labour politicians have become convinced over the past year that Reform UK could supplant the Conservatives as the main right-wing force in British politics.
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Now they face the slim possibility that something similar could happen on their side of the political spectrum.
It's too early to say whether this is likely or even possible.
But it's certainly possible, and that's one reason this by-election could be remembered for a long time.
As it stands—and this is an important caveat—there are no signs that the Greater Manchester result will immediately lead to any further Labour leadership shake-ups.
Even a Labour MP, who messaged me about Sir Keir Starmer after the result, simply saying "it's time to go," believed any change should happen after the May elections rather than now.
Still, Sir Keir's former deputy, Angela Rayner, appealed to Labour to take this as a "wake-up call" and be "more brave" quite clearly.
One thing about the Conservatives.
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Gorton and Denton wasn't their natural territory, and tactical voting was high, but still, getting only 700 or so votes and losing their deposit is a bad sign.
The party that was in government less than two years ago finished nearly 14,000 votes behind the winner, and just 547 votes ahead of "Sir Oink-A-Lot" of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.
It's worth remembering that this is the second by-election after the 2024 general election.
Last May, in Runcorn and Helsby, Labour was also defeated by a different kind of insurgent force: in that case, Reform.
Yes, it's common for governing parties to lose by-elections.
But overall, with the Conservatives seemingly politically absent in both contests, these by-elections point to a new dynamic of growing political forces to the left and right of traditional parties.
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