Starmer determined to fend off leadership challenge

Those loyal to Sir Keir Starmer fear his position could be in immediate danger, perhaps immediately after the budget, within a fortnight.

Critics say this is evidence that Downing Street is in "full bunker mode," which will "do nothing to help the government get out of the hole we are in."

Sir Keir's friends are deeply concerned that a plot to replace him is underway and want to make clear the serious risks of a leadership challenge.

Names being discussed by Labour MPs as potential candidates to replace Sir Keir include some of his closest cabinet colleagues, notably Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.

Some are also speculating about the ambitions of backbenchers, including Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and former Transport Secretary Louis Hague.

Some loyalists to the Prime Minister are particularly viewing Streeting's ambitions with suspicion.

Streeting called suggestions he would challenge Sir Keir "self-defeating nonsense", and said he was not standing against the prime minister.

Asked if he would ever consider making such a move, he replied: "I cannot see circumstances under which I would do that to our prime minister."

He said the Prime Minister should sack the aide responsible for the briefing. He described it as "the worst attack on a loyalist since Joe Marler was expelled in The Traitors Finale."

He further said there was a "toxic culture" in Downing Street that needed to change.

One minister said: "He will fight this," before making reference to a key by-election in 2021 which Labour lost to the Conservatives, prompting Sir Keir to consider resigning as Labour's leader.

"This is not a Hartlepool moment," they added.

"He is one of only two people alive who have won a general election for Labour. It'd be madness to run against him after 17 months."

Opinion polls show that Sir Keir is extremely unpopular, perhaps even the most unpopular British Prime Minister in modern opinion polling history.

Polls also show that the Labour Party has not received the support of more than a fifth of voters in recent months.

However, replacing Sir Keir is not a straightforward move. Under Labour Party rules, nominating a rival would require 20% of its MPs—given the current size of the parliamentary party in the Commons, 81.

For the past several months, many within the Labour Party have believed that the government faces a potential crisis following the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales and local elections in many parts of England next May.

The Labour Party is widely expected to perform poorly in these elections, but some within the party are growing concerned that it cannot wait until then to consider a change of leader.

Downing Street is aware of the potential for such a threat.

One senior Labour MP told us: "It's all very well to say wait for the locals, but that's my activist base I'm sending into the gunfire. I can't lose all my councillors."

Another Labour source said: "The list of reasons for people to move after the Budget are growing by the day.

"If Wes is brave and moves he may well be rewarded by being prime minister by Christmas."

A government source said Downing Street "has gone into full bunker mode, turning on their most loyal cabinet members for absolutely no reason".

"Unfortunately there is a pattern of Keir's team briefing against his own people - they did it to Angela, Lisa, Lucy, now it's Wes's turn," the source added.

"A circular firing squad won't help the government out of the hole we're in," a government source said - referring to the former and current deputy leaders, Angela Rayner and Lucy Powell respectively, and the Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy.