Snow & Unsettled Weather Ahead: Met Office

Its long-range forecast says snowfall is expected, but only in the higher elevations of the northern part of the country.

The Met Office downplayed reports that heavy snowfall is expected in the UK later this month.

Citing data from online forecast compiler WXCharts, The Mirror reported that snowfall could occur in cities such as Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol, and Leeds on Sunday, November 30.

However, the Met Office told Yahoo News UK: "Different simulations show different weather forecasts, and a one-time, single chart does not give a complete picture of the forecast.

"The actual forecast is created by combining hundreds of computer model simulations. Our expert forecasters know the nuances of different weather simulations and, most importantly, they know which ones to refer to and when."

Last week, the Met Office issued several yellow weather warnings as much of the UK was blanketed in snow. Tomintoul in Moray, Scotland, recorded the lowest November temperature of -12.6°C, the lowest in 15 years.

After rain across the UK on Saturday, temperatures will rise significantly this week, reaching double digits in many places on Thursday and Friday.

A Met Office spokesperson told Yahoo News UK on Monday, "Temperatures will be cold today, becoming milder midweek and Friday." "Low-pressure systems will dominate, meaning much of the UK will experience prolonged periods of rain or showers. Some heavy rain or showers are expected, mostly in the west, although there is a risk of it spreading to other areas at times. Snowfall will likely be confined to higher altitudes in the north.

Snowfall may occur in higher altitudes, but temperatures will remain around or slightly above average.

Why is it difficult to accurately predict snowfall?

The Met Office said that forecasters consider three factors when predicting snowfall: where the wind is coming from, how heavy the rainfall is, and when warm air meets cold air.

Because of these indicators, accurately predicting snowfall in the UK can be "one of the most difficult predictions."

The Met Office said: "Due to the UK's location, where the wind is coming from is crucial in determining whether or not it will snow."

"Being surrounded by water adds another factor to predicting the likelihood of snowfall in the UK. You might not notice it if you step inside, but the water in the seas surrounding the UK is well above freezing, and this affects the air temperature near the surface, which can predict how much snowfall will occur."

Because all three factors must be present, the Met Office needs a lot of data, which means they can predict actual snowfall several days in advance.

This is because even if they know for sure that two of the three factors are present a week in advance, they can't be sure about one, and without all three, they won't even know the likelihood of snowfall.