Will you get a $2000 tariff dividend check?Here's the betting

Bettors on prediction betting sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi seem to be skeptical.

President Trump recently suggested the possibility of checks from tariff revenue. "A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone," he posted Nov. 9 on Truth Social.

Three days later, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed the president's support for the dividends when asked about it on Nov. 12. "The White House is committed to making that happen, yes, and we are currently exploring all legal options to get that done," she said.

Trump broached the idea of a dividend rebate in July saying tariff revenue could lead to "a little rebate but the big thing we want to do is pay down debt."

The $2,000 payments would be made "to low and middle income USA Citizens," Trump said Nov. 10 on Truth Social. But taxpayers can be forgiven if they are skeptical of the checks arriving, as this isn't the first time Trump has suggested giving money to Americans. No checks arose from the president's consideration in February of stimulus checks funded by expected savings the cost-cutting efforts of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The site gives a 7% likelihood for President Trump creating a tariff dividend in 2025, with more than $950,000 in volume. Betting began on Oct. 3 and rose to 17% on Nov. 9, but has fallen since then.

Trump, who had brought up the idea of a tariff dividend for Americans in August, also mentioned the potential dividend checks during an Oct. 2 interview with One America News Network (OAN). "We've thinking maybe $1,000 to $2,000. It'd be great," he said.