14 Teams With the Best Shot at the 2026 NCAA Title

A long-running college basketball trend has resurfaced this week. Since 2004, every national champion has shared one unusual trait: each was ranked inside the top 12 of the Associated Press poll in Week 6 of the season. And as Week 6 arrives, analysts are once again studying the rankings to predict who might cut down the nets in 2026.

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For two decades, Week 6 of the AP Top 25 has held surprising predictive power. Every NCAA champion since 2004 has been ranked inside the top 12 at this exact point in the season.

This week, the overlap between the AP poll and CBS Sports’ Top 25 And 1 is significant. Ten of the top twelve teams appear in both lists. The differences?
The Top 25 And 1 includes North Carolina and Arkansas, while the AP swaps them out for Houston and Louisville.

Based on that combined pool, analysts have identified 14 potential contenders most likely to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Iowa State, UConn, BYU, Purdue, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Alabama, North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisville, and Houston.

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Notably, the reigning national champion Florida Gators are not on that list. Florida has struggled early in the season, entering the week at 5–3 with losses to Arizona, Duke, and TCU — and no wins over ranked opponents. Transfer guard Xaivian Lee has also had a tough start at the high-major level, shooting under 25% from the field through eight games.

But the Gators now have an opportunity to shift momentum. On Tuesday night, they face UConn in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden. It’s a prime stage for Florida to reset expectations and prove they still belong in the championship conversation. UConn enters as a 4.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Whether the trend continues remains to be seen. But with history suggesting the champion is likely already in this week’s top 12, tonight’s matchup could be an early indicator of who’s truly built for a deep March run.

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